应用新型Lanchester方程的非对称空战进程预测

针对未来空战中可能出现的非对称空战问题进行研究,在设定的非对称空战背景下构建新型Lanchester方程对问题进行建模分析,得到单一机种和多兵种非对称空战模型,并通过仿真试验验证了模型的有效性,对非对称空战指挥决策提供了一定的帮助。     

基于网络抗毁性的装备贡献度评价

高新技术的应用使装备间关联关系更加复杂,武器装备论证更加困难。装备对体系贡献度研究为武器装备论证发展提供了新思路。基于作战环思想构建武器装备体系作战网络模型,同时完成作战环理论所划分的同类型装备的网络化建模,提出复杂网络背景下装备贡献度的定义及基于网络抗毁性的贡献度评价方法,通过美国国家导弹防御系统进行算例分析来验证该方法的可行性。结果显示,不同装备对体系的贡献度大小可以通过复杂网络模型进行预判。     

高焓高压空气加热器壁面传热过程数值计算

以一种高焓高压空气加热器为研究对象,对其冷却通道的流动和传热进行了三维数值仿真,冷却剂采用液态水,燃烧室和喷管分别采用不同的壁面材料,考虑壁面材料物性随温度的变化,并通过加热器热试验证了数值仿真结果的正确性。在此基础上,对比分析了气体辐射、冷却通道结构以及冷却水的流动方式对壁面换热的影响。结果表明:气体辐射对加热器燃烧室段壁面换热影响较大,对喷管壁面换热无明显的影响。在传热计算中,忽略气体辐射会引起较大的误差;冷却通道数和宽度存在最优组合,使得壁面换热量最大。冷却水的流动方式对燃气侧壁面温度影响较小,但对冷却液侧壁面温度的影响较大。     

防空兵网络化作战指挥控制方式

信息化条件下防空兵作战依托防空兵指挥信息系统,已经将防空兵各个作战要素联结到了一起,初步具备了网络化作战的雏形.而恰当的指挥控制方式是实施高效防空兵网络化作战的关键问题之一.首先剖析了防空兵网络化作战给指挥控制带来的新特点,而后构建了防空兵网络化作战指挥控制方式的概念模型,在此基础上提出了适应防空兵网络化作战的指挥控制方式是自适应指挥控制方式.并研究了防空兵网络化作战实施自适应指挥控制方式的必要性、可行性、内在机理以及实现的途径.     

基于区间数理论的空战目标威胁评估

针对空战目标威胁评估问题,提出了一种新的基于区间数理论的评估方法。在分析了现有的目标威胁评估方法中距离威胁模型存在不足的基础上,提出了改进的距离威胁模型。给出了区间数特征向量法求解威胁指标权重的计算步骤,建立了基于区间数理论的空战目标威胁评估的数学模型。最后给出了仿真算例,仿真结果表明该方法是合理和有效的。     

基于变结构方法的空空导弹鲁棒逆控制律设计

为克服动态逆控制严重依赖被控对象精确数学模型且鲁棒性较差的缺点,将动态逆与变结构方法相结合采用双环结构设计了空空导弹鲁棒动态逆控制律.将导弹飞行状态划分成快慢2个回路,慢回路(外环)采用变结构控制,并设计扩张状态观测器,对外环中的不确定性进行估计;快回路(内环)采用动态逆控制.仿真结果表明,所设计的控制律具有较好的动态特性和鲁棒性能.     

军事指挥类期刊对军事学术研究的透视

军事指挥类期刊主要依靠各级军事指挥员,服务于部队全面建设。在军事学术研究队伍不断发展壮大的今天,军事指挥类期刊为部队“能打仗、打胜仗”军事理论研究服务,但军事学术研究存在着研究群体优势和合成作战理论优势发挥不够的问题。因而,要高度重视军事学术研究人才培养,加大经费投入,强化军兵种之间合成作战理论研究的力度。     

The structure of the defense industry and the security needs of the country: a differentiated products model

This paper models the interactions between the defense needs of the USA and Western Europe, which produce several heterogeneous defense goods, and the defense industry market structure. The results show that net defense costs of the USA and Europe are lower when the number of defense firms in each arms‐producing country is small and when the world prices of the defense goods are high. The model predicts that the increase in world prices will crowd‐out countries in the developing world from the market for modern weapon systems and may force them to develop and use ‘cheap and dirty’ weapon systems.     

THE EFFECTS OF THE WORLD DEFENSE INDUSTRY AND US MILITARY AID TO ISRAEL ON THE ISRAELI DEFENSE INDUSTRY: A DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCTS MODEL

This paper models the interactions between the defense industry market structure and the defense needs of Israel, the USA and Western Europe, which produce several heterogeneous defense goods. The model specifies that the defense industries of the US and Europe are ‘large’ while that of Israel is ‘small’. The US military aid to Israel is also an integral part of the model. The results show that net defense costs of Israel are minimal when the number of its defense firms is one. The model predicts that an increase in US military aid reduces Israel’s government expenditure, its defense industry’s profits and its net defense costs.     

Does Geopolitical Risks Predict Stock Returns and Volatility of Leading Defense Companies? Evidence from a Nonparametric Approach

Abstract

We use the k-th-order nonparametric causality test at monthly frequency over the period of 1985:1 to 2016:06 to analyze whether geopolitical risks can predict movements in stock returns and volatility of 24 global defense firms. The nonparametric approach controls for the existing misspecification of a linear framework of causality, and hence, the mild evidence of causality obtained under the standard Granger tests cannot be relied upon. When we apply the nonparametric test, we find that there is no evidence of predictability of stock returns of these defense companies emanating from the geopolitical risk measure. However, the geopolitical risk index does predict realized volatility in 50% of the companies. Our results indicate that while global geopolitical events over a period of time is less likely to predict returns, such global risks are more inclined in affecting future risk profile of defense firms.